Signs of Sectoral Rotation

Market Breath

All major indices—from the Nifty 50 to the Nifty Microcap 250—posted strong one-week and one-month gains, with the smaller-cap indices (Smallcap and Microcap) leading the charge (up 7.7% and 8.5% in one week, respectively).

While the 1-week and 1-month returns are robust and green across most segments, the 3-month and 6-month columns are awash in red, highlighting that the recent rally is a sharp reversal following a period of sustained weakness.

Such strong and widespread gains suggest a classic “risk-on” environment, where investors pour money across the market spectrum—not just into large, defensive names, but also into riskier mid- and small-cap stocks. This is often seen when a major overhang or uncertainty is lifted, as was the case with Trump’s tariff pause announcement.

Despite the celebratory tone in the short term, the longer-term returns (3-6 months) remain negative for most indices and sectors, especially cyclicals like IT, Metals, and Auto. This suggests that while the tariff pause has triggered a relief rally, underlying economic and export challenges persist, and the market is still recovering from earlier shocks

Top 10 Outperforming Sectors - Stock Scans

Banks and NBFCs are leading the revival rally that was there in the past 1 week. There are some signs of sector rotation that is happening currently.

Sub themes which are doing well and showing strength

1. Hospitals

2. APIs

3. Private banks

4. SFBs

5. Jewellery sector

6. FMCG: Dairy products

7. Textiles

With this the overall market breadth has also started to improve where -

1. Percentage of stocks above improving from the bottom

1. Large caps and small caps making new 52 week highs while midcaps lagging behind

1. More new highs are being formed than lows

1. Also Banks and finance are also leading the way in making new 52 week highs

Overall the market breadth has started to improve with that upside moves sector rotation has also started to become visible. On top of it Indian macros are also improving with retail inflation coming down, Crude prices falling, Liquidity improving and rate cut cycle in place with expectation of more rate cuts to come in the future. On top of that the monsoon forecasts are also good. That would be good for a lot of consumption led themes to also do well.

Also the government order tendering has also improved a lot in march and because of the increase in the award of orders in march and feb the year has been able to close up 2% for the year 2025.

Top projects awarded in March 2025 were mostly related to the power, road construction, and telecom orders (Bharat net).

Bebsol Fiasco

Gensol’s rapid ascension in India’s renewable energy sector appeared remarkable. Between FY2017 and FY2024, standalone sales surged from ₹61 crore to ₹1,152 crore, while net profits climbed from ₹2 crore to ₹80 crore. The balance sheet expanded exponentially, with total liabilities growing from ₹10 crore in FY2017 to ₹2,202 crore by H1 FY2025, supported by borrowings that peaked at ₹1,260 crore in FY2024.

The company’s 2019 listing on the BSE SME platform and subsequent 2023 transition to the main boards of BSE/NSE catalyzed retail investor interest. Shareholders ballooned from 155 in FY2020 to 109,872 by March 2025, while promoter holdings halved from 70.72% to 35% during this period. This dilution coincided with a meteoric stock price rise to ₹1,126/share (market cap: ₹4,300 crore) before collapsing to ₹133/share (₹506 crore) by April 2025

The crisis emerged publicly in March 2025 when CARE Ratings and ICRA downgraded Gensol’s credit facilities to ‘D’ (default grade). ICRA’s downgrade rationale highlighted discrepancies between Gensol’s liquidity assurances and lender-reported payment delays. But one can be alarmed even before the credit rating agencies by simply using CFO/PAT or CFO/EBITDA ratio which was screaming the truth.

More about the truths of cashflow can be in the upcoming masterclass on cashflow on youtube!

So now let’s understand how the promoter syphoned off money for leisure from RTPs and used the debt taken for the purpose of buying EV fleet for blue smart was used to buy property at Camellias and get an expensive spa.

The core misconduct involved ₹663.89 crore of ₹977.75 crore borrowed from IREDA/PFC for EV procurement. Although Gensol claimed these funds financed 6,400 EVs leased to BluSmart Mobility (a related party), procurement records confirmed only 4,704 vehicles purchased for ₹567.73 crore. This left ₹262.13 crore unaccounted, with forensic audits tracing flows through supplier Go-Auto Private Limited to promoter-linked entities

1. Circular Transactions: Funds transferred to Go-Auto were rerouted to Gensol or entities like Capbridge Ventures LLP (promoter-designated partners).
2. Personal Enrichment: Portions financed high-end real estate acquisitions and personal expenses of promoters Anmol Singh Jaggi and Puneet Singh Jaggi.
3. Related-Party Benefits: Transfers occurred to Matrix Gas & Renewables Ltd. (promoter-directors), Param Care Private Limited (director-linked), and Wellray Solar Industries (ex-employee controlled)

The Gensol episode illustrates how rapid growth narratives can mask underlying financial engineering. Key systemic issues exposed include:

1. Rating Agency Reliance: CRAs failed to independently verify lender certificates despite sector-wide awareness of project finance risks.
2. SME Listing Vulnerabilities: The BSE SME platform’s lighter disclosure norms may have enabled early-stage misconduct.
3. Related-Party Opacity: ₹829.86 crore deployed through BluSmart and Go-Auto lacked third-party validation of asset deployments.

In the bull markets every company looks like a consistent compounder and reality gets shaded away on the echoes of the stories made around the companies.

But the bear market is something that separates the Reality from the stories and such examples of companies like Gensol, DHFL, Manpasand, etc. keeps on coming up!

A Short Note on all the Business Updates and Quarterly Results till now

A lot of companies posted business updates and a few quarterly results in the last 15 days. And amongst those these are the interesting ones which might be worth looking for.

Decent to good business updates/earnings till now Sector wise

1. Life insurance - Decent growth in numbers and market share expansion was seen
2. Jewellery space - Good business updates. Growth momentum was good for most of the players.
3. Mfi/SFB - Good updates on collection efficiency
4. Value Fashion Retailers - Very strong growth momentum for most of the players. Also one of the largest players faced a slowdown in revenue growth
5. Select Real estate players - Some players reported highest ever pre sales and collections for the Q4.
6. Transformer companies had a robust commentary on continuing demand

Companies with Below average earnings growth/business updates till now

1. IT: seems growth has really slowed down & Guidance is being reduced
2. Capital market players: One of the brokers reported subdued earnings, and guiding for Earnings momentum to resume from Q4FY26.

HDFC Bank vs ICICI Bank Q4 FY25 results:

The reason why ICICI bank has largely outperformed HDFC bank largely lies in the numbers. ICICI bank is able to grow its PAT faster than HDFC bank. Also ICICI bank outperforms in majority of KPIs having ROE and ROA > than HDFC bank and also its Loan to deposit ratio is in a comfortable zone for the company and does not have the same struggles that HDFC bank has to bring down its Loan to deposit ratio.

The Microfinance NBFCs and Small finance banks are showing small signs of recovery. After most of the stocks down more than 50% from the highs the cycle for most of the microfinance players seems to be turning with them showing improvement in collection efficiency and in general with a lag of 1 or 2 quarter the sector turns to do well post the collection efficiency starts to improve.

1. Disbursements still are still lagging: Improvement in this variable in future can be a big trigger for the players.

1. Improvement in collection efficiency: This is considered to be the early sign of improvement in the players. And clearly there is improvement in the numbers here

1. Also the Karnataka book collection efficiency has improved for the players, which became problematic with Ujjivan leading the way, followed by CAG.

Key Market Announcements

New Product / Order/ Launches

1. Jsw Steel - JSW Steel Italy signs €33mn grant-backed development contract for rail mill expansion.
2. Iris Business - Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Award_of_Order_Receipt_of_Order IRIS Business Services has Informed the exchange about Bagging/Receiving of
3. TVS Motor - Launch of upgraded TVS Apache RR 310 with advanced features
4. Eicher Motors - ROYAL ENFIELD LAUNCHES THE ALL NEW CLASSIC 350 IN NEPAL
5. AWFIS - Awfis Partners with ECOS (India) Mobility & Hospitality Limited
6. to Launch Premium Corporate Transportation Services
7. Mahindra life - launch of a residential project, ‘Mahindra NewHaven’ at Bengaluru South
8. Glenmark life - Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Inc., USA to launch Dextroamphetamine Saccharate, Amphetamine Aspartate, Dextroamphetamine Sulfate and Amphetamine Sulfate Tablets (Mixed Salts of a Single Entity Amphetamine Product), 5 mg, 10 mg, 15 mg, 20 mg and 30 mg
9. Roto Pumps - pumps Launch of P-Range pumps, new infrastructure, and $100M revenue target by 2028
10. Purvankara - Collections up by 9% Y-o-Y at 3,937 crores in FY25. Pre-Sales at Rs 5,006 crores in FY25 and 1,282 crores in Q4 FY25
11. Poonawalla - Poonawalla Fincorp Launches Gold Loan Business
12. Electronics Mart - launched a new Bajaj Electronics store
13. Ahluwalia contract - Award_of_Order_Receipt_of_Order Recent Awards of Rs. 396.50 Crores from Godrej Properties Ltd Secured
14. IRCON - Design, Manufacture, Supply, Installation, Testing & Commissioning of Microprocessor based EI system (with inbuilt Block Instrument in EI) as per RDSO Spec at 20-stations of Ajmer Division along with Automatic Block Signalling and associated indoor & outdoor works of Signalling & Telecom Systems/gears. Order worth 127 crs
15. JB chem - USFDA approval for Bisoprolol generic tablets.
16. Ganesh Infra - Awarded ₹206.5 crore BOP Civil Works order in Andhra Pradesh.
17. Genesys - Genesys wins Rs 15 Crore order for 3D mapping in Pune.
18. AGI Infra - Received RERA registration for AGI Smart Homes-II Extension project in Jalandhar.
19. Winsol - 47% sales growth, major orders, and Zambia subsidiary
20. Refex - Refex Green Mobility shifts focus to scalable B2B/B2B2C EV solutions, phases out airport taxi services.
21. Viviana - Subsidiary awarded Rs. 65.87 crore contract by Dakshin Gujarat Vij.
22. Krystal -Received Rs 349 Cr contract for facility management from Tamil Nadu Medical Services.
23. Alembic - Alembic gets USFDA final approval for Carbamazepine Tablets, 200 mg.
24. Venus remedies - Venus Remedies receives US FDA QIDP status for novel polymyxin B formulation.
25. SBI Cards - Launch of Tata Neu SBI Card in lifestyle category.
26. Bliss GVS - USFDA approval for Mesalamine Suppositories 1000 mg ANDA.
27. Rate Gain - Sky Airline partners with AirGain for pricing strategy.
28. Transrail - Transrail Lighting secures fresh orders worth ₹1,085 crore.
29. Ahluwalia contracts - Secured order worth Rs. 396.50 Crores for housing project.

Capex and Acquisitions

1. Aster Dm Health - CCI approves merger of Aster DM Healthcare and Quality Care India.
2. National Fertilisers - JV for new Ammonia-Urea plant, capex ₹572.45 crore
3. Divi’s Labs - Long-term international supply agreement; ₹650-700 crore capex planned.
4. ADF Foods - GPCB orders closure of two ADF Foods plants for alleged pollution violations.
5. NIIT - NIIT acquires 100% stake in iamneo Edutech for Rs 613 million.
6. Exide - Rs 300 Cr investment in subsidiary for lithium-ion battery plant.
7. Sigachi - Environmental clearance for Dahej SEZ facility, enabling major capacity expansion.
8. KP Energy - Commissioning of 23.1 MW wind-solar hybrid project in Gujarat.
9. Zydus life - Zydus Lifesciences to acquire over 90% of Amplitude Surgical.
10. Zydus life 0 Zynext Ventures invests in Feldan Therapeutics for intracellular drug delivery innovation.
11. Ultratech - Acquisition of 26% in AMPIN C&I Power Eight for renewable energy needs.
12. KFINTECH - Conference call on acquisition of Ascent Fund Services (Singapore) by KFin Technologies.
13. Pondy Oxides - Commercial production started at new 36,000 MT plant in Tamil Nadu.
14. Swaraj engines - engine capacity expansion to 240,000 units.
15. Gallant ispat - Capex of Rs 1,014.98 Cr for plant expansion and solar power plant.
16. Aster DM - CCI approves Aster DM Healthcare's acquisition and merger with QCIL.
17. Hind OIL explo. - HOEC awarded new Mumbai Offshore oil and gas block.
18. Oil India - Oil India secures 9 blocks under OALP IX, expanding exploration acreage by 85%.
19. Vedanta - Vedanta acquires 7 new oil & gas blocks in OALP-IX.
20. NHPC - Commercial operation of Parbati-II HE Project (800 MW) declared.
21. GC Hotels - Launch of 21st hotel property at Banjara Hills, Hyderabad.
22. Havells - Havells invests INR 600 Crores in Goldi Solar.
23. Indian Hotels - IHCL announces 100 new locations with 74 signings and 26 openings.

Fund Raise

1. LLoyd - Announcement of ₹987 Cr rights issue and record date.
2. IDFC First bank - IDFC FIRST Bank to raise ₹7,500 crore from Warburg Pincus and ADIA affiliates.
3. Max india - Proposed rights issue of equity shares up to Rs. 125 Cr for Max India.
4. SEPC - Addendum to draft letter for Rs 350 Cr rights issue; updates terms and risk factors.
5. Home first finance - Raised ₹1,250 Cr via QIP to institutional investors

Change in Management

1. Waree renewables - Board changes, CFO appointment, director designation change, resignation, audited results, and internal auditor appointment.
2. Petronet LNG - Appointment of Saurav Mitra as Director (Finance) & CFO.
3. JM Financial - MD & CEO - Private Wealth transferred to subsidiary after business transfer.
4. Shriram AMC - Open offer to acquire 26% stake in Shriram Asset Management.
5. Redington - Redington announces new CEOs for India, IME, and Turkey/Africa/Egypt regions.
6. Greaves Cotton - Greaves Cotton appoints Mr. Parag Satpute as new CEO.

Others

1. Jai Corp - Received Rs 362.72 crore from UIHPL capital reduction.
2. AGS Transact - AGS Transact to sell 90% stake in Novus Technologies Pte. Ltd.
3. Ease my trip - ED searches EaseMyTrip premises; company denies betting app links.
4. Rane (madras) - Credit rating upgraded to A+/Stable for Rane (Madras) post-merger; ratings withdrawn for merged entity.
5. Gensol -SEBI interim order: promoters removed, forensic audit initiated, company clarifies compliance and disclosures.
6. PAYTM - CEO voluntarily cancels 2.1 crore ESOPs; ₹492 crore one-time expense.
7. Waree renewables - FY25 results, 82% revenue growth, major new solar and battery orders
8. Dlf - Sale of Kolkata IT/ITeS SEZ to Srijan Group for ₹693 crore.
9. Hi-tech pipes - CRISIL upgrades Hi-Tech Pipes' long-term credit rating to A+/Stable.
10. RK Forging - Credit rating upgraded to IND AA/Stable; business diversification and financials improved.
11. IGL - 20% reduction in domestic gas allocation; profitability expected to be impacted.
12. Bazaar style - Temporary store closure at Dhuliyan due to civil unrest; losses insured, impact being assessed.
13. Nureca - Nureca products to be sold on Swiggy Instamart.
14. Blue dart - Blue Dart expands express connectivity to Northeast India, adding Guwahati as a direct flying location.
15. AB Real estate - Birla Estates achieves record INR 8000 crore bookings, 100% YoY growth in FY25.
16. Bharti Airtel - Airtel partners with Blinkit for 10-minute SIM delivery.
17. AWHCL - Business update with record revenue and strategic restructuring.
18. Premier Energies - Premier Energies partners with RENA for solar cell innovation.

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